China’s President Xi Jinping’s call to his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, to pre-empt a “new Cold War” during the former’s visit to Europe points to the geopolitical faultlines of 2024.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi told Macron that the two leaders should uphold mutual benefits, and jointly oppose decoupling and the disruption of supply chains.
Xi and Macron have called for worldwide ceasefire during the Olympic Games that start in Paris in late July.
“We are at a historical turning point where threats are at an unprecedented level and the risks of global fragmentation are considerable,” Macron said, sitting alongside his Chinese counterpart at a business conference in Paris, as quoted by Bloomberg.
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Why are EU, China At Odds with Each Other?
The mistrust between European Union and China started growing after the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war. Although China never understood Russia’s annexation of Crimea, it also never blamed Russia for its military actions.
While Europe has considered China’s attitude towards the Ukraine-Russia war ambiguous, they interpreted it as China’s “passive support to Russia”, as per Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Moreover, European public opinion has called every declaration about the war by the Chinese government as unfair for not blaming Russia.
The paper in Carnegie Endowment for International Peace also mentions US and China as two rival groups. In between these two groups is Europe, which China puts in the Western basket, hinting that it cannot be trusted.
Distrust towards Beijing in Brussels is also growing, shown by a recent flurry of arrests of alleged Chinese spies and a salvo of trade probes, as reported by Bloomberg.
China also launched an anti-dumping investigation into liquor products, a move that could hurt France’s cognac producers. More broadly, China has denied generating overcapacity and accuses the EU of protectionism, Bloomberg said.
What is the New Cold War?
The Cold War, as defined by former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in 1946, may have ended three decades ago, but another one has sort of begun, and is going global.
Unlike the US-Soviet Cold War, this one has multidimensional relationship where China and the West trade and invest with one another, and China and Russia maintain their anti-American and authoritarianism by supplying oil, gas and grain to the world, though with sanctions.
And now with Israel-Iran missile attacks, as a fallout of the Israel-Gaza war, there is a clear schism – with US-led West on one hand and the China-Russia axis on the other. The anti-US character of Shia fundamentalism and the pro-Assad stand of Iran in Syria have pushed Iran closer to Russia and China.
White House is concerned over the fallout of Israeli action in Gaza that had killed more than 30,000 civilians in Palestine — pro-Muslim demonstrations in the US and outside might be weakening the US position in the Middle East and providing a certain advantage to Russia and China, according to an article written by a former director of Intelligence Bureau in IANS.
The expansion of NATO beyond Europe has been happening for some time—first in the Middle East and then in Afghanistan, where the US orchestrated withdrawal. But now, NATO is crossing a Rubicon in Asia, according to Foreign Policy.
Where Does India Stand?
Today, India can be called the one of the most important emerging powers of the world. Its relations with the US have gotten stronger, considering that Washington has reconciled itself to New Delhi despite its relations with Russia, likely because India has aligned itself closer to the US on China.
Non-alignment has been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy since the Cold War began. Former Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru articulated that “great powers should never define India’s interests or policies” as mentioned in Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Ukraine-Russia War: In 2022, India imported over 1 million barrels per day. By the end of the year, India was importing 33 times the amount of Russian crude than it had a year before.
Though several western countries were unhappy with India, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar pointed out, “I have a country that has a per capita income of two thousand dollars. These are not people who can afford higher energy prices,” he said.
India also stayed neutral in the war in Ukraine, choosing to abstain on every UN resolution since March 2022, including Russia’s withdrawal or condemning the war. But this does not mean that India is indifferent to violence in Ukraine.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 Summit in May 2023 assured Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky that India would “do everything it can” to help bring peace in Ukraine. Modi in fact gently nudged Vladimir Putin on the Ukraine war, which many world leaders thought make New Delhi as a viable option for mediation between Russia, Ukraine and the West.
From 2017 to 2022, India bought more Russian weapons than any other country, as per Reuters news agency. It is also procuring Russian S-400 air defense systems, stealth frigates, and nuclear submarines.
Although Russia’s share of India’s arsenal has fallen as India has increased arms trade with France and the US, the war in Ukraine has prompted India to diversify its sources of weapons as Russia struggles to meet deliveries.
Approach to China: India cooperates increasingly with the US on defence and considers its membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) comprising Australia, Japan, India and US pivotal to maintain regional balance with China.
During Modi’s US state visit in June 2023, Joe Biden announced that the US and India would co-produce jet engines for fighter aircraft, marking a historic development in technology sharing. India also became the first non-ally to receive armed US Predator drones—a deal negotiated under former president Donald Trump’s administration.
The Biden administration has invested in its partnership with New Delhi, with American and Indian armies holding regular military exercises and defence dialogues. Both countries have also cooperated on the development of semiconductors, telecommunications, technology and artificial intelligence.
According to a CNBC article, “India stands to benefit from plans to ‘de-risk’ from Chinese supply chains if it can realize its potential as a manufacturing powerhouse and build out value chains that can rival China’s”.
India’s security concerns about China has not prevented it from cooperating with China through BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). But India continues as the ‘Voice of Global South’ and advocate for a more inclusive system where developing countries have more representation, as per the Ministry of External Affairs.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has aptly defined India’s perspective on US-China strategic competition: “What I would not like to be defined as is standing against something or somebody, because that diminishes me. That makes it out as though some other people are the center of the world and I’m only there to be for them or against them.”
Israel-Gaza War: In October last year, India abstained at United Nations General Assembly on a resolution that called for an immediate humanitarian truce. But in December, two months after the war began on October 7, India voted for a draft resolution on Gaza ceasefire. Amid Iran-Israel escalation, the MEA said, “We call for immediate de-escalation, exercise of restraint, stepping back from violence and return to the path of diplomacy. We are closely monitoring the evolving situation… It is vital that security and stability are maintained in the region”.
India’s strategic ties with Israel encompasses cooperation in multiple fields from defence to technology. PM Modi has visited Israel in 2018 and his personal chemistry with PM Benjamin Netanyahu is very cordial. Israel is one of India’s biggest defence supplies along with the US, UK, France and Russia. Iran, on the other hand, is India’s one of prime oil suppliers. After the sanctions, India has not been able to buy oil from Iran. Early this year, S Jaishankar visited Iran, where India is invested in building the Chabahar port.
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