NFL Week 11 Playoff Picture: It’s now or never for the 2023 Buffalo Bills | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics – Pro Football Focus

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• Eagles out in front in the NFC: The Philadelphia Eagles have a 68% chance of securing the top seed in the NFC, according to PFF’s model.

• A massive week for the Bills: The Buffalo Bills have a 45% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 11 win against the New York Jets, but their chances will fall to just 13% with a loss.

• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF’s Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 11

Current AFC playoff standings
  1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
  2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
  4. Miami Dolphins (6-3)
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
  6. Cleveland Browns (6-3)
  7. Houston Texans (5-4)
Current NFC playoff standings
  1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
  2. Detroit Lions (7-2)
  3. San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
  4. New Orleans Saints (5-5)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
  6. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
  7. Minnesota Vikings (6-4)

If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Texans) and two new NFC teams (Lions and Saints) to the playoffs.

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The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.


Note that the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots are on a bye week.


Note that the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are on a bye week.


Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we’ve become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chance of pulling it off, as all four teams in that division are positioned to make a playoff push come December. The AFC North features three playoff teams in the majority of our simulations. All four teams from that division make it to the playoffs 5% of the time. Here are the chances for each division to send three teams to the playoffs:

North 56% 9%
East 1% 5%
South 7% 1%
West 4% 2%

Looking ahead to draft season

There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.

PFF’s customizable mock draft simulator gives you the opportunity to be the GM for any team in the 2024 NFL Draft — click here to start drafting!
The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:
Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:

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