1/31/24 – 2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Haley Leads Biden 1 On 1, But Trails When Third Party Candidates Are Added – Quinnipiac University Poll

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As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe
Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 – 44 percent among registered
voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University
national poll of registered voters released today.

In Quinnipiac University’s December 20, 2023 poll, the same hypothetical 2024 general election matchup
was ‘too close to call’ as President Biden received 47 percent support and former President Trump received 46
percent support.

In today’s poll, Democrats (96 – 2 percent) and independents (52 – 40 percent) support Biden, while
Republicans (91 – 7 percent) support Trump.

The gender gap is widening.

Women 58 – 36 percent support Biden, up from December when it was 53 – 41 percent.

Men 53 – 42 percent support Trump, largely unchanged from December when it was 51 – 41 percent.

“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few
weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,”
said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party
candidates, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert
F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.

Among independents in the five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Biden receives 35
percent support, Trump receives 27 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, West receives 5
percent support, and Stein receives 5 percent support.

BIDEN VS. HALEY

In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between President Biden and Republican presidential
candidate Nikki Haley, a former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, 47 percent of voters
support Haley and 42 percent support Biden.

In today’s poll, Democrats (87 – 10 percent) support Biden, while Republicans (79 – 4 percent) and
independents (53 – 37 percent) support Haley.

In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party
candidates, Biden receives 36 percent support, Haley receives 29 percent support, independent candidate Robert
F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 21 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.

Among Republicans in the five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Biden receives 3
percent support, Haley receives 57 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, and West receives 1
percent support.

“In a head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, thanks to independents. Add third
party candidates to the mix and her numbers slip in part because of her weakness among Republicans,”
added Malloy.

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

With the 2024 Republican presidential primary now whittled down to two candidates, 77 percent of
Republican and Republican leaning voters support Trump and 21 percent support Haley. In December’s poll with
more candidates in the race, Trump received 67 percent support and Haley received 11 percent support.

In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Biden receives 78 percent support among Democratic and
Democratic leaning voters, author Marianne Williamson receives 11 percent support, and U.S. Representative
from Minnesota Dean Phillips receives 6 percent support.

BIDEN

Voters give President Biden a negative 41 – 55 percent job approval rating. While still deep in the red, it
is his highest job approval rating since June 2023.

Voters were asked about Biden’s handling of…

  • the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 47 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove, with 8 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the economy: 42 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove, with 3 percent not offering an opinion;
  • foreign policy: 37 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the response to the war between Israel and Hamas: 34 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion;
  • the situation at the Mexican border: 28 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.

“As inflation fears cool and the bruising campaign heats up, President Biden rides a welcome small uptick
in confidence in his handling of the economy,”
added Malloy.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

More than 8 in 10 voters (84 percent) are either very concerned (41 percent) or somewhat concerned (43
percent) that the United States will be drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East, while 15 percent are
either not so concerned (11 percent) or not concerned at all (4 percent).

“Are the winds of war swirling in the sands of the Middle East? As American troops take deadly fire from
terrorist proxies, the conflict footprint is broadening and with it, the concerns of a large majority of voters are
solidifying,”
added Malloy.

MOST URGENT ISSUE

Given a list of 10 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, 24 percent of
voters say preserving democracy in the United States, 20 percent say the economy, and 20 percent say
immigration.

There are wide gaps by party identification.

Among Republicans, the top issues are immigration (38 percent), the economy (29 percent), and
preserving democracy in the United States (12 percent).

Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (39 percent) followed by
the economy (12 percent), with no other issue reaching double digits.

Among independents, the top issues are preserving democracy in the United States (23 percent),
immigration (19 percent), and the economy (18 percent).

U.S. – MEXICO BORDER

A majority of voters (61 percent) consider the situation at the border between the U.S. and Mexico a
crisis, while 33 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 4 percent think it is not a problem at all.

There are wide gaps by party identification.

Among Republicans, 82 percent think it is a crisis and 17 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis.

Among Democrats, 43 percent think it is a crisis, 51 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 6
percent think it is not a problem at all.

Among independents, 60 percent think it is a crisis, 35 percent think it is a problem but not a crisis, and 3
percent think it is not a problem at all.

Nearly 6 in 10 voters (59 percent) think U.S. policy on immigration is not strict enough, 20 percent think
it is about right, and 15 percent think it is too strict.

Voters are split when it comes to building a wall along the border with Mexico, with 49 percent opposing
building a wall and 47 percent supporting it. This compares to a Quinnipiac University national poll in October
2023 when 52 percent supported building a wall along the border with Mexico (an all-time high) and 44 percent
opposed it.

Nearly 6 in 10 voters (58 percent) think immigrants from other cultures have a mainly positive impact on
American society, while 27 percent think immigrants from other countries have a mainly negative impact, and 14
percent did not offer an opinion.

ECONOMY

Thirty-six percent of voters describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as either excellent (6
percent) or good (30 percent), while 63 percent describe it as either not so good (29 percent) or poor (34 percent).

This compares to a Quinnipiac University poll in August 2023 when 30 percent of voters described it as
either excellent (3 percent) or good (27 percent) and 69 percent described it as either not so good (32 percent) or
poor (37 percent).

Asked what they consider is the best measure of how the nation’s economy is doing, 46 percent of voters
say the prices of goods and services they buy, 19 percent say the unemployment rate and job reports, 15 percent
say their personal finances, 9 percent say the housing market, and 5 percent say the stock market index.

1,650 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from January 25th – 29th with a margin
of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey included 696 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a
margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The survey included 693 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters
with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent,
non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are
based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell
phones.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email [email protected] or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.

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